Japan Land Prices 2026: What the Resort Price Surge Around Hakuba and Niseko Means for STR Investors

Japan's 2026 land price survey shows a calm national market (+1.5%) but steep jumps in ski resorts: Hakuba's top commercial site rose 35.6% and one Furano residential site 32.0%, both the highest in Japan. In our view, some popular resorts are moving from a phase where land delivered both appreciation and yield to one where rising land costs squeeze yields. The question for investors is no longer "where rose most?" but "at this land price, which tier of lodging still works?"

1. The Short Answer

On September 15, 2026, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) published the 2026 Prefectural Land Price Survey (kijun chika), valued as of July 1, 2026. The national all-use average rose a modest 1.5%, but the top of the national ranking was dominated by Hakuba Village (Nagano), Furano City (Hokkaido), Nozawa Onsen Village (Nagano) and Asakusa in Tokyo.

In our view, three things follow:

• Yields are being compressed. One commercial site in Hakuba rose about 2.7 times between 2022 and 2026 (our calculation). Land generates no revenue, so higher land prices mean lower yields unless revenue rises too.
• High-end lodging absorbs land inflation best. When land is a small share of total project cost, a land price jump hurts far less.
• Hakuba and Niseko are not a first-property market. In our experience, scarce land, scarce builders and the practical demands of snow make these areas better suited to an investor's third or fourth property than their first.

Below, we explain this with primary data and our own calculations.

2. The National Picture: Calm Overall, Sharp in Tourist Areas

The kijun chika survey is conducted every year by each prefectural governor, valuing land as of July 1. In 2026 it covered 21,466 sites nationwide. It is separate from the national Land Price Publication (chika koji), valued as of January 1, so together the two give a reading every six months.

Table 1. Year-on-year land price change, as of July 1, 2026 (previous year in brackets)

Source: MLIT.

The national averages rose for the fifth straight year in every category. But regional areas were nearly flat, so the gap between places that are rising and places that are not is wide.

In its survey overview, MLIT says that in tourist areas with strong inbound growth, "high land price increases continue, backed by strong demand for shops and hotels." For resort areas, it points to "strong demand for second homes and condominiums, from people relocating, and for employee housing."

3. The Top Risers: Resorts and Asakusa

The main tourism and resort sites among Japan's top risers were as follows (price per square meter, as of July 1, 2026), from MLIT's national ranking tables.

Table 2. Top-ranked tourism and resort sites, 2026

Source: MLIT. "—" = previous-year figure not confirmed.

Four of the top ten commercial sites nationwide were in Tokyo's Taito Ward (Asakusa, Nishi-Asakusa, Komagata). MLIT attributes Chitose's rise mainly to the construction of a next-generation semiconductor plant, not tourism. MLIT's regional residential ranking also includes Karuizawa (+17.0%) and Makkari Village (+15.9%) in the Niseko area.

Three points stand out:

• Hakuba is accelerating. Two Hakuba sites went from around +14% last year to over +30% this year. MLIT explains that demand from wealthy domestic buyers and foreigners for second homes and condominiums has spread into residential land, while hotel and commercial development is advancing with rising visitor numbers.
• Furano and Asakusa remain elevated. Furano-3 also rose 27.1% last year, when it was likewise Japan's top residential riser, as the Hokkaido Shimbun reported. Asakusa 1-chome follows +27.4% last year. Two consecutive years above 20% means the price level itself has reset much higher.
• Central Niseko is not in the top ten. No site in Kutchan or Niseko Town made the national top-ten tables. In our view, Makkari's appearance suggests demand spreading from the core to surrounding areas.

4. Hakuba Over Four Years: One Site Up About 2.7 Times

Single-year change rates hide how far price levels have moved. We compared the same survey sites in Nagano Prefecture's 2022 survey with the 2026 values.

Figure 1. Hakuba Village survey sites: price multiple, 2022 to 2026

Each ■ = 0.2x. Prices per square meter, July 1, 2022 → July 1, 2026. Multiples are our calculation (2026 price ÷ 2022 price). Source: Nagano Prefecture, MLIT.

Back in 2022, Nagano Prefecture wrote of Hakuba 5-2 that although COVID had reduced the profitability of the village's tourism industry, property demand anticipating the end of the pandemic was firm, and it expected prices to keep rising. In our view, land prices were already pricing in the tourism recovery then, and by 2026 the rise had widened further.

In absolute terms, resort land is still far cheaper than Tokyo: ¥8,000/㎡ for Hakuba-3 versus ¥4,900,000/㎡ for Asakusa 1-chome. Because the starting price level is small, percentage changes tend to look large.

5. Our Areas: Hakone, Fuji Five Lakes and Tokyo

We also checked prefectural releases for the areas where we handle properties (all as of July 1, 2026).

Table 3. Hakone, Fujikawaguchiko and Tokyo (previous year in brackets)

Source: Kanagawa Prefecture, Yamanashi Prefecture, Tokyo Metropolitan Government.

For Hakone residential land, Kanagawa notes that "lodging demand is spreading to vacation rentals and similar uses." For commercial land, it cites continued strong rises around Hakone-Yumoto Station on the back of more foreign visitors and higher visitor spending (see also our Hakone STR Market Analysis and Investment Strategy).

In Fujikawaguchiko, the Funatsu commercial site (Fujikawaguchiko 5-1) rose 14.8%, the highest commercial rise in Yamanashi. For a scenic second-home site (Fujikawaguchiko-3), the prefecture notes that "demand for minpaku and lodging facilities is also growing" (minpaku: private lodging under the Housing Accommodation Business Act).

In our view, Hakone and Fujikawaguchiko are in a phase of steady single-digit to low-teens increases, not the 30%-plus surges of Hakuba and Furano. But lodging demand is named explicitly in both areas' explanations, so we think competition for land suitable for lodging has already begun.

6. How Land Prices Hit Yields: Our Calculation by Price Tier

This is the most important part for overseas investors. When you buy land for an STR (short-term rental; for how Japan's two licensing regimes differ, see Hotel Business Act vs. Housing Accommodation Business Act), the land itself produces no revenue. Revenue comes from the building, interior and operation. When land rises, total project cost rises, and if revenue stays the same, yield falls.

How much it falls depends on land's share of total project cost. We compared a low-rate and a high-rate property on the same land.

Assumptions (our calculation; hypothetical figures)

• Land: ¥30 million in both cases
• Low-rate model: building and interior ¥20 million → total ¥50 million (land 60%); annual lodging revenue ¥5 million
• High-rate model: building and interior ¥120 million → total ¥150 million (land 20%); annual lodging revenue ¥15 million
• Gross yield = annual lodging revenue ÷ total project cost (before expenses). Both start at 10.0%
• Total cost after a land rise = land × (1 + rise) + building and interior

Figure 2. Total project cost: land vs. building and interior

■ = land, □ = building and interior. Each square ≈ ¥10 million (our calculation). In the low-rate model most of the cost is land, so a land rise inflates the total sharply.

Figure 3. Change in gross yield

Each ■ = 0.5% (our calculation). Example: low-rate, land +30% = ¥5 million ÷ (¥30 million × 1.3 + ¥20 million) = 5 ÷ 59 ≈ 8.5%.

The revenue increase needed to restore a 10.0% yield is roughly land share × land price rise. If land rises 30%, the low-rate model needs about 18% more revenue (60% × 30%); the high-rate model needs about 6% (20% × 30%). On land that rose about 2.7 times (+170%) like Hakuba 5-2, the low-rate model would need to more than double revenue (+102%), while the high-rate model would need +34% (our calculation).

Figure 4. Revenue increase needed to restore a 10.0% yield

Each ■ = 5% (our calculation; required revenue increase ≈ land share × land price rise).

From this, we estimate the impact by price tier as follows:

• Low-rate lodging (mainly room-only, small properties at a few tens of thousands of yen per night or less): land tends to be a large share, so land inflation passes straight through. Starting the same type of property on land that has already risen makes the yield hard to sustain.
• Mid-range: depends on location and occupancy. In our view, whether an area has summer demand as well as winter demand makes the difference.
• High-rate lodging (whole-house rentals, onsen or sauna, strong design): heavier investment in building and interior keeps land's share low, so land inflation is easier to absorb, and there is room to raise nightly rates.

This calculation has limits. Cleaning fees and OTA commissions (booking sites such as Airbnb and Booking.com) move with revenue, so net yield must be calculated separately. The high-rate model assumes a location, quality and operation that can actually win bookings at that rate. Rising construction costs also push up project cost (see The Impact of the Strait of Hormuz Situation on Construction Materials and Schedules in Japan).

7. The Hunt for "the Next Niseko"

As prices in popular resorts climb, investor interest moves to surrounding areas and the next candidates. A May 2026 President Online article reported that the foreign-demand-driven changes seen in Niseko are spreading to Hakuba and Myoko. In this year's survey, Myoko (+18.5%) and Makkari (+15.9%) both entered the regional top ten for residential land.

In our view, getting into "the next Niseko" early offers potential appreciation, but on the STR operating side you need to check:

• Seasonality: in areas that rely only on winter skiing, how you build summer occupancy changes annual revenue significantly.
• Operations: MLIT lists demand for employee housing among the drivers of resort land prices. Securing cleaners and managers, and housing them, feeds into operating costs.
• Exit: where buyers are few, the sale price may not turn out as expected.

8. "Is It Too Late to Buy?" Our Answer

Overseas investors in Singapore, Hong Kong and elsewhere will likely ask first: "Are Hakuba and Niseko already too expensive? Is it too late to buy?" In our view, the real problem in popular resorts around Hakuba and Niseko comes before the question of overpaying. The following reflects what we see in our own practice.

First, in our experience, very little land suitable for a business comes up for sale. High price growth is the flip side of few sellers relative to buyers. Good plots tend to change hands before reaching the market, so the first hurdle is not "at what price?" but "can you buy at all?"

Second, even with land, building is hard. MLIT cites hotel and commercial development driven by visitor growth as a factor behind Hakuba's rise. In our experience, local contractors and tradespeople are tied up by these large projects, and it is hard to find a builder willing to take on a small whole-house rental. Owning land does not guarantee you can build on schedule and on budget.

Third, snow country needs more land than the city. In our experience, heavy-snow areas often require owners to handle snow sliding off roofs, and snow they clear, within their own lot. For example, the community agreement that Tokamachi City (Niigata) concludes with buyers of its Misaki-cho subdivision requires snow-storage space (taisetsu space, an area for piling snow) so that snow can be handled on the owner's lot. Parking and building layout must also be planned around snow, so in our view the same size of lodging needs a considerably larger site than in a city. Yet from what we see, small plots of around 500㎡ are frequently on the market. Buying one without understanding snow can mean the planned building does not fit or winter snow clearing does not work, and the business may not be viable. In our view, the "affordable-looking small plot" is a trap to avoid.

Our conclusion: a third or fourth property, not a first. In our view, the Hakuba and Niseko areas are not the place to choose for your first or second property in Japan. For investors who already have access to land information, builders and local people who handle snow clearing and cleaning, adding them as a third or fourth property within a portfolio is well worth considering. Note that because we have no local base in these areas, we do not expect to be able to support acquisitions or operations around Hakuba or Niseko.

Factor in demand changes too. These land prices are as of July 1, 2026. According to Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) estimates, foreign visitor arrivals in August 2026 fell 9.6% year on year. We cover the market-by-market picture and the impact by price tier in Is Japan's Tourism Boom Over? Why the 2026 China Decline Hits Budget STRs Hardest and Premium Villas Least. In our view, the impact on high-end resort whole-house rentals is limited, but how far land prices reflect this demand shift is something we want to check again in the March Land Price Publication (as of January 1).

Rising land prices may also, over time, affect tax burdens such as fixed asset tax (kotei shisan zei). The specific effect differs by property, so please consult a tax accountant or other professional.

9. What This Means for Investors

We read the 2026 survey as a sign that land in Japan's tourist areas has begun to be priced in earnest by inbound tourism and wealthy second-home demand. That is good news in the sense that Japan's resort market is being valued by overseas investors. But the strategy of building cheap lodging on cheap land for a high yield is becoming hard to make work in popular areas. Around Hakuba and Niseko, scarce land, scarce builders and the larger sites that snow requires add practical barriers that, in our view, make them unsuitable for a first property in Japan.

The deciding questions are no longer "where rose most?" but "at this land price, which tier of lodging can still make money?" and "can I actually build and operate on this land?"

The Room specializes in selling and operating high-rate whole-house rentals in Hakone, the Fuji Five Lakes area and Tokyo, with serious investment in the building and the guest experience, operated under a year-round Hotel Business Act license (ryokan gyo license). If you would like to explore a property designed and run to stay profitable even as land prices rise, please get in touch.